Iran’s geopolitical vision, epitomized by the revolutionary slogan ‘Neither East nor West, only Islamic Republic,’ sought to assert its independent agency during the Cold War. The collapse of the Soviet Union transformed Iran’s strategic landscape, leading to the emergence of new independent states in Central Asia and the Caucasus and removing the contiguous border with Russia. This shift allowed Iran to adapt its relations with Russia to one based on mutual regional interests. Simultaneously, the United States emerged as a dominant power in West Asia after the Gulf War. Iran adopted a pragmatic approach, acknowledging Russia’s regional leadership and fostering multilateral cooperation through initiatives like the Caspian Economic Cooperation Organization. Since the 1990s, Iran has prioritized relationships with the rising Asian powers under the strategy known as ‘Look East.’ This strategy, rooted in the notion of maintaining balance and independence, traces its origins back to the 19th-century reforms of Premier Mirza Taqi Khan Amir Kabir. This strategy has resurfaced under different administrations, aligning with diplomatic challenges with the West. Under former President Raisi, this approach has evolved into an ‘Asia-oriented’ strategy, reflecting a systemic shift and strategic partnerships, notably with China and Russia. Iran’s middle power behavior aims to integrate with and influence the emerging regional order, emphasizing multilateralism, cultural identity, and strategic connectivity across Eurasia.
The theory of middle powers in International Relations (IR) highlights the role of secondary powers in shaping international outcomes, shifting the focus away from great power politics. Traditionally, middle powers such as Canada and Australia have been viewed as conservative forces supporting the US-led liberal international order, striving for stability and upholding the status quo. These countries have sought a unique status by engaging in diplomatic functions within international institutions and advocating for humanitarian goals. In the 1990s, a behavioral approach emerged, emphasizing the involvement of middle powers in multilateralism and global governance, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region. The concept has evolved to encompass emerging middle powers from the Global South, aiming for reforms without fundamentally challenging the liberal order. Scholars like Charalampos Efstathopoulos argue for a nuanced understanding of middle powers’ agency, emphasizing their use of ideational resources and situational actions. Meanwhile, Andrew Carr suggests that shifts in international polarity will redefine middle powers based on their impact on the emerging system. This approach views power relationally, focusing on how states act within specific areas. Middle powers safeguard their interests and drive change through both material and ideational means. Iran’s ‘Look Eastward’ policy, following its entry into the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), exemplifies this strategy, promoting regional multilateralism and positioning Iran as a key player in Eurasian connectivity.
Since the end of the Cold War, Iran’s regionalism and multilateralism have aimed to counter the US-dominated international system. Iran advocates for a multipolar world, emphasizing cultural, religious, and historical ties with its neighbors to foster regional identity and cooperation. Iran’s security narrative underscores the importance of autonomy from external hegemonic influences. Therefore, Iran began engaging with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in 2005, seeking to align geostrategic interests with Russia and China against US influence. Despite facing obstacles in obtaining full SCO membership due to its anti-American stance and nuclear disputes, Iran continued its efforts in multilateral diplomacy until it successfully obtained full membership in 2023. During the Rouhani administration, Iran emphasized trade with Europe after the JCPOA, but the US’ withdrawal from the agreement redirected focus back to China. Iran’s membership in the SCO and BRICS falls within its strategy of challenging the US-led order. Iran’s narrative of “Asian multilateralism” aims at enhancing regional stability and security through cooperation while excluding Western influence. Iran has actively supported regional multilateral efforts, notably in Afghanistan and the Armenia-Azerbaijan border crisis, to address security concerns and limit Western intervention. Iran’s regional strategy involves engaging with various actors, including India, to balance the influence of Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Pakistan, while safeguarding its regional and national interests.
In the current context of the West’s declining power and the uncertain emergence of a multipolar world, Iran is leveraging its civilizational narrative to redefine its national identity and long-term geopolitical objectives. Former President Khatami’s promotion of a ‘Dialogue among Civilizations’ rejected US hegemony and advocated for a global vision of pluralism and horizontal dialogue among civilizations. This narrative, focused on peaceful coexistence, stands in contrast to the prevailing realist paradigm. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei envisions the construction of a new Islamic Civilization in the ‘second phase of the [R]evolution,’ urging caution towards European nations while adopting a hostile stance towards the US. This civilizational strategy positions Iran against the perceived declining West and emphasizes its historical role in Asia, nurturing relations with China, Russia, and India. Leveraging the ‘New Silk Road’ narrative, Iran positions itself as a central link between civilizations, advocating for regional cooperation and connectivity. Former President Raisi’s visit to China highlighted Iran’s historical and geographical importance in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), advocating for equal status with major Asian powers. Iran’s middle power strategy focuses on fostering a sense of regional unity through reviving the memory of Iran’s historical interactions with Asian civilizations before the emergence of national identities. During the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit, Raisi emphasized the historical coherence of Asia and the SCO’s role in stabilizing Central Asia, emphasizing Iran’s pivotal position in promoting regional connectivity. Iran’s involvement in various regional projects such as the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and collaboration with China and Russia reflects its strategy of serving as a critical ‘bridge’ linking regional initiatives. This approach allows Iran to steer clear of zero-sum thinking, maintaining balanced relations while maximizing transit potential and revenue. Iran also aims to integrate the operations of the Chabahar Port within a broader regional context, avoiding exclusive ties with India and navigating competitive dynamics with China.
