The ten-month conflict between Israel and Hamas has expanded beyond Gaza, causing military escalations across the Middle East, including clashes on the Israeli-Lebanese border, Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and on Tel Aviv, and assaults by Iranian-aligned militias on US forces in Iraq and Syria. Recently, Israel claimed responsibility for assassinating Fuad Shukr, a top Hezbollah commander, in Beirut in response to a Hezbollah rocket attack and is believed to be behind the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’s political leader, in Tehran. These actions have raised fears of a larger regional war. Israel’s history of targeting Palestinian and Hezbollah leaders and its deep intelligence operations within Iran showcase its military capabilities. However, these recent escalations appear to stem from a perceived weakness following Hamas’ October 7 attack, prompting Israel to take higher risks to restore deterrence, despite the potential for significant retaliation from Iran and its allied groups.
Fear Factor:
Since Hamas’s attack on October 7, Israel’s sense of security has significantly shifted from confidence to deep vulnerability. Previously, Israel believed it could secure Arab acceptance without resolving the Palestinian conflict, strike Iran and its allies with impunity, and maintain unwavering US support. The attack shattered these assumptions, undermining faith in Israel’s military and technological deterrence, and exposing weaknesses in its fortified borders and economic stability.
Many in Israel’s security establishment now acknowledge the country’s limitations, and there is widespread anger and mistrust towards the government for its perceived security failures. This discontent is exacerbated by Prime Minister Netanyahu’s controversial actions and the military’s resources stretched across multiple fronts. Domestically, Netanyahu’s judicial overhaul has deepened rifts within the military, and the IDF faces unprecedented threats from extremists, including right-wing activists within its ranks. Internationally, Israel’s actions in Gaza have led to a loss of support and increased scrutiny in global legal forums.
April Fools:
Iran’s April attack on Israel had a profound, underappreciated impact on the country. Israel’s targeting of an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps facility in Damascus led to an unexpected, massive Iranian response with hundreds of drones and missiles. While the US-led defense successfully repelled the assault, it exposed Israel’s vulnerabilities and shattered its image of self-reliance. Israeli analysts found some reassurance in their ability to strike accurately within Iran, but the incident underscored their discomfort with solely relying on deterrence by denial. Instead, Israeli defense planners prefer deterrence by punishment to ensure adversaries face severe consequences for attacks. Concerns are growing about Israel’s declining regional position and the increasing strength of Iran and its allies, potentially leading Iran to further pursue nuclear capabilities. Despite their political leaders’ assurances of victory, many Israelis feel an unprecedented existential threat, believing their adversaries now see destroying Israel as a feasible goal. This fear contrasts sharply with the lessons of David Ben-Gurion, Israel’s founding prime minister, who emphasized social cohesion, diplomatic relations, and peace—areas where Israel is currently faltering.
Up the Hardened Path:
A former government official highlighted that Israel’s current sense of vulnerability and aggressive regional posture stem from the shock of Hamas’s October 7 attack, reversing previous overconfidence. This increased perception of threat, coupled with confidence in continued US support, fuels Israel’s aggressive stance, despite the heightened risk of a broader regional conflict. The Israeli public, traumatized by recent events, now shows a greater acceptance of risk and offensive actions. However, Israel’s reliance on brute military force without a clear political strategy is unlikely to alter the worrying regional dynamics or deter Iran and its allies, who may respond unpredictably. Although ending the Gaza conflict could alleviate some threats, Israel’s deeper strategic dilemma remains its unresolved conflict with the Palestinians. While tactical military successes may offer short-term victories, lasting security can only be achieved through an enduring peace with the Palestinians.
